Climate Change and Educational Access in Somaliland: Assessing Enrollment and Dropout Trends

This study investigates the relationship between drought conditions and educational access in Somaliland, utilizing spatial analysis to examine enrollment and dropout patterns.Results reveal significant regional disparities in educational infrastructure, with western urban areas having more schools than eastern regions.Despite having the highest density of educational facilities, the Maroodi Jeex region shows the highest dropout rate (45%), while remote regions like Saaxil and Sanaag maintain relatively low dropout rates (8%).Western districts demonstrate substantially higher kindergarten enrollment (14,827 students) compared to southeastern regions (549 students), indicating early vulnerability to climate-influenced disparities.Primary education dropout data shows higher rates for male students than females, particularly in western districts, likely reflecting household labor allocation during climate stress.Grade-level progression analysis revealed a systematic narrowing of the educational pipeline, with dramatic enrollment declines between Grades 3 and 4 and virtually zero enrollment in Grade 8 in several eastern districts.Temporal drought analysis (2020-2022) shows significant variability across regions, with northeastern coastal areas improving while southeastern districts worsened.The temporal consistency of recurrent drought impacts across the 2020-2022 period suggests that prolonged climate stress systematically reinforces educational disruption patterns rather than producing isolated short-term effects.Extreme weather events, particularly recurrent droughts, have directly shaped enrollment and dropout trends across climate-exposed districts.This research identifies climate-vulnerable educational zones and provides actionable recommendations for enhancing educational resilience through targeted interventions.