Policy Capacity and Local Disaster Management Effectiveness: Assessing Institutional Performance in Rokan Hulu Regency, Indonesia

Subnational disaster risk governance in decentralized settings often performs relatively well in emergency response but struggles to sustain evidence-based planning and longterm political commitment to disaster risk reduction (DRR).This study examines how policy capacity shapes the effectiveness of local disaster management in Rokan Hulu Regency, Indonesia.Using a sequential triangulation mixed-methods design, the study combines documentary analysis of the 2025-2029 Disaster Management Plan (DMP) and related planning and evaluation documents with a structured institutional self-assessment survey (n = 30) and semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions (FGDs) with key agencies.Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, while qualitative materials were coded thematically and integrated through cross-source validation.The findings reveal an asymmetric capacity profile: operational capacity is comparatively strong, particularly in coordination routines, emergency logistics, and program implementation, whereas analytical capacity, including integrated data use, risk analysis, and monitoring and learning, and political capacity, especially budget anchoring, stakeholder coalitions, and legislative support, remain comparatively weak.These imbalances result in only a moderate overall Policy Effectiveness Index (PEI) score of 3.38/5.The study recommends institutionalizing an inter-agency data and policy analysis function, strengthening monitoring, evaluation, and feedback loops within the planning cycle, and securing multi-year DRR budget commitments through local regulations to support sustained capacity integration.