兼业行为对渔民退捕意愿的影响及机制——基于浙江省沿海822份渔户的调查

[Objective] This study, from an endogenous development perspective, reveals the impact of pluriactivity on fishermen’s willingness to exit fishing and provides micro-level evidence for optimizing policy instruments and implementation pathways for fishing exit and livelihood transition. [Methods] Using 2024 survey data from 822 fishing households in three coastal cities and eight counties of Zhejiang Province, this study employed OLS, ordered Probit, and an instrumental variable approach to examine the impact and mechanisms of pluriactivity on fishermen’s willingness to exit fishing. [Results] (1) Pluriactivity significantly increased fishermen’s willingness to exit fishing, indicating that pluriactivity was not only an adaptive strategy for fishermen to respond to changes in the external fishery environment, but also an important factor influencing their willingness to exit fishing. (2) Mechanism analysis showed that pluriactivity effectively increased fishermen’s willingness to exit fishing by reducing risk perception of unemployment and improving human capital. (3) The impact of pluriactivity exhibited heterogeneity across different groups of fishermen. First, the effect of pluriactivity on fishermen’s willingness to exit fishing was more pronounced among fishers with higher education levels and local fishers. Second, the effect of pluriactivity was more pronounced among fishermen engaged in non-fishing sectors. [Conclusion] This study reveals the key role of pluriactivity in shaping fishermen’s willingness to exit fishing, enriches the understanding of livelihood transition mechanisms, and provides empirical evidence for constructing endogenous development-oriented policy pathways. Accordingly, it is recommended that policies should focus on exploring and cultivating the endogenous development capacity of fishermen engaged in fishing, rather than focusing only on the resettlement of fishermen who have exited fishing.