CLIMATE CHANGE MEETS GEOPOLITICS: U.S. ARCTIC POLICY UNDER TRUMP THROUGH THE LENS OF OFFENSIVE REALISM

The Arctic region is an intersection of strategic competition and climate change. With the melting of glaciers in the Arctic, previously inaccessible natural resources and new sea trade routes have become accessible. Furthermore, according to data from the U.S. Geological Survey, a significant portion of the world's oil and natural gas reserves are located in the Arctic. This situation has made the region not only an area of environmental vulnerability but also a strategic area. Indeed, the United States (US), particularly during Donald Trump's presidency from 2017 to 2021, has significantly increased its interest in the Arctic. During this period, environmental regulations were pushed into the background, and environmental diplomacy was weakened through policies such as withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement. The main objective of this study is to examine the effects of climate change on US foreign policy in the context of the Donald Trump era and to reveal how these policies can be understood within the framework of the theory of offensive realism. Offensive realism is a theory developed by international relations theorist John Mershaimer. According to this theory, states do not merely seek to ensure their security; they are constantly engaged in the pursuit of power maximization and hegemony. In line with this, the study examined strategy documents published between 2019 and 2021 using content analysis and developed policy options for Trump's second term through scenario analysis. According to the findings of the analysis, the strategy documents are consistent with the basic assumptions of offensive realism. The study concluded that the perspective of offensive realism would be dominant during Trump's second term, that a balanced foreign policy was a limited possibility, and that a neighborhood-first policy was unlikely.