A DIAGNOSTIC ASSESSMENT OF TURKIYE’S DEVELOPMENT TRAJECTORY WITHIN THE NEW STRUCTURAL ECONOMICS FRAMEWORK

New Structural Economics (NSE) views development as a process of structural transformation shaped by the interaction of factor endowments, industrial structure, and the facilitating role of the state. From this perspective, development cannot be assessed by growth outcomes alone, but by whether production structures evolve in line with underlying factor conditions. Accordingly, this study analyzes Türkiye’s development trajectory over the 2000–2023 period within a theory-consistent structural framework. The analysis examines the alignment between Türkiye’s evolving factor endowments and its industrial and export structure, together with the role of state institutions in facilitating this process. The study is structured around three interconnected dimensions: factor endowment dynamics, revealed specialization across technological sectors, and the state’s institutional capacity to support structural transformation. The findings reveal a persistent structural misalignment. Despite notable improvements in capital accumulation, higher education, and infrastructure since the late 2000s, industrial specialization has remained concentrated in low- and medium-technology manufacturing. Revealed specialization patterns suggest that growth has largely occurred without sustained industrial upgrading, indicating that Türkiye’s main development constraint lies in the lack of coherence between capabilities, institutions, and strategic orientation.