Reassessing Zambian Democracy: Social Forces and the 2016 Presidential, Parliamentary and Local Governmment Elections

Democratic transitions across Africa have often been shaped by dynamic social forces, and Zambia is frequently celebrated as a model of relative stability.However, the 2016 presidential, parliamentary, and local government elections marked a pivotal moment of social and political upheaval.This paper examines the emergence of new social forces in Zambia during this period, focusing on rising public discontent with entrenched leadership and traditional governance structures.Employing Steven Hood's (2004) theoretical framework, which conceptualizes democracy as a fusion of rights and virtues, the analysis explores the processes and consequences of social unrest before, during, and after elections.According to Afrobarometer, only a third of Africans believe that votes are counted fairly in elections (Rupiah 2017:19).This skepticism is a major concern, as disputed polls can spark violent protests and erode public faith in democracy, leading to lower participation (Rupiah 2017:19).Research by Afrobarometera pan-African, non-partisan research network surveying more than 30 countriesindicates that most citizens in many African countries have lost confidence in the credibility of elections.Despite this, politicians often insist that elections that brought them to power were credible (Kisitu 2016).Disputed election results are increasingly common: in 2016, incumbents such as Edgar Chagwa Lungu (Zambia), Yoweri Museveni (Uganda), and Ali Bongo Ondimba (Gabon) retained office despite contested outcomes, while Gambia's Yahya Jammeh first conceded defeat and later rejected the results (Rupiah 2017:19).In Zambia, Edgar Lungu was inaugurated as the sixth president despite the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) contesting the results in court (Lusaka Times 2016I).The elections left Zambia deeply divided between UPND and the ruling Patriotic Front (PF).This loss of trust in elected leaders and the electoral process has become a driving "social force" (Gumede 2016), manifesting as a loose movement by ordinary citizens protesting government failures to improve living conditions.As William Gumede (2016) observes, this social force is often expressed through xenophobic attacks, violence, looting, tribalism, and religious fundamentalism.