Understanding the drivers of regional greenhouse gas emissions: a case study of Tatarstan

Regional disparities in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are substantial across large and economically diverse territories in Russia, making subnational assessments important for the implementation of national climate policy. As a major industrial and energy-producing region in the Volga Federal District, the Republic of Tatarstan provides a relevant case for examining emission dynamics under sustained economic growth. This study investigates the trends and driving forces of GHG emissions generated from fuel combustion in Tatarstan over the period 2005-2022 by applying the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method in both the temporal and sectoral dimensions. The results show that total GHG emissions from fuel combustion increased from 29.56 Mt in 2005 to 36.07 Mt in 2022, representing an overall growth of 22%. The results of the decomposition analysis identify economic activity as the dominant driver of emission growth, contributing to a cumulative increase of 16.50 Mt. In contrast, improvements in energy intensity served as the primary mitigating factor, offsetting emissions by 10.17 Mt. Overall, these findings confirm that economic activity remained the dominant driver of GHG emission growth in the Republic of Tatarstan throughout the entire study period, while improvements in energy intensity functioned as the primary offsetting factor. These conclusions underscore the importance of complementing existing conventional mitigation measures with additional structural and technological solutions aimed at further reducing the carbon intensity of the economy while maintaining long-term economic growth, and they provide analytical support for developing targeted, region-specific climate strategies in highly industrialized regions of Russia.