Constitutional reform and public trust in Southern Africa: Evidence from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Malawi

Trust in public institutions has become a central governance concern in Southern Africa, where post-apartheid constitutional reforms were intended to strengthen accountability, protect rights, and consolidate democratic rule. South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Malawi offer contrasting trajectories of reform and institution-building, shaped by varying political settlements, judicial independence, and citizen expectations. Despite formal advances such as enhanced human-rights protections, electoral reforms, and new accountability institutions, survey evidence suggests declining public confidence in core state structures. This paper examines how constitutional reform episodes influence trust in institutions using a country-year panel from 2000–2020, drawing on Afrobarometer, V-Dem, and the World Justice Project’s Rule of Law Index. A difference-in-differences design identifies changes in institutional trust following reform events, while a synthetic control approach provides additional insight for early adopters. The analysis indicates that reforms improve trust only where rule-of-law institutions function credibly and where reform implementation is consistent. The results highlight the importance of judicial performance, electoral management capacity, and local governance quality. The paper concludes that future reforms must prioritise implementation and institutional coherence to restore trust across Southern Africa’s democracies.