Household welfare and energy access in East Africa: Impacts of off-grid solar home systems

Off-grid solar home systems have become a central element of energy access strategies in East Africa, particularly in Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania, where pay-as-you-go models have expanded rapidly. This paper examines how household adoption of solar home systems affects welfare and education outcomes, using nationally representative surveys, regional solar irradiance data, and education indicators from UNESCO. The analysis applies an instrumental-variable strategy that exploits exogenous variation in solar irradiance to address adoption endogeneity. Results show that higher irradiance significantly increases the likelihood of adopting solar home systems, which in turn reduces kerosene expenditures, improves lighting quality, and supports longer study hours for children. Welfare gains are evident through higher household savings, improved perceptions of wellbeing, and reduced energy insecurity. Education outcomes benefit through increased evening study time and reduced school absenteeism during rainy months, when grid reliability declines. These findings align with emerging evidence from East Africa that off-grid solar can strengthen inclusive energy transitions and contribute to human development when supported by favourable financing models, consumer protection, and long-term system maintenance pathways. The results offer policy guidance for regional initiatives aiming to expand sustainable, affordable, and reliable household energy access.