The Ukrainian Conflict and the EU View on the Future of European Security

The Ukrainian conflict marked a turning point in the European Union/NATO and Russia’s rethinking of the post-bipolar European security system. The end of the Cold War raised hopes for a “Secure Europe in a Better World”, as stated in the EU Security Strategy adopted in 2003. However, the reality proved different. The goals of creating a “secure Europe”, as well as a “better world”, were never achieved due to growing contradictions between Russia and the West over the emerging NATO-centric security system in Europe and their rivalry in the post-Soviet space, which means that these contradictions are not situational, but systemic in nature. Moreover, the world order established during the period of détente in Europe, which relied on strict adherence to the Helsinki Rules – the famous Helsinki Decalogue, – collapsed, but the new one did not arise. The Ukrainian conflict not only destroyed the very concept of common collective security in Europe but returned relations between Europe and Russia to the Cold War era, at a new, more dangerous juncture in the international relations. The outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will largely determine the rigidity of this confrontational scenario. Also, specific plans for restoring cooperation will depend on Russia’s role in the post-conflict settlement. However, it is clear that the EU–Russia relations will not return to the status quo ante bellum. In the most positive scenario, only selective cooperation on mutually beneficial issues can be restored in the short term. This article analyzes the development of the European Union’s approach to the Ukrainian conflict as well as to the future of European security system related to the end of this conflict.