Structural Determinants of Women’s Leadership in Eastern Europe: A Multi-Country Panel Analysis Linking Self-Efficacy, LMX, and Organizational Pathways

Women’s participation in leadership varies substantially across Eastern Europe despite sustained gains in education and labor-force engagement. It integrates psychological leadership theory with structural labor-market indicators to explain these disparities. Using a novel proxy framework for self-efficacy, leader–member exchange (LMX), and organizational behavior, we analyze panel data from Romania, Poland, Hungary, and Bulgaria (2019-2023). Female representation in senior management and ministerial positions serves as a structural marker of societal self-efficacy. Differences in part-time employment and childcare-related employment penalties act as institutional constraints that shape LMX quality. Mismatches between women’s educational attainment and leadership representation capture organizational behavior at scale.Significant country effects, with Hungary and Romania systematically underperforming relative to Bulgaria across leadership indicators, despite high levels of women’s tertiary education. Sectoral disparities are pronounced, with parliamentary representation significantly exceeding ministerial representation, suggesting uneven gender openness across institutional domains. Parenthood-related employment gaps and part-time work patterns further amplify leadership divergence, underscoring persistent constraints on women’s organizational mobility.The findings indicate that structural labor-market frictions—not educational deficits—remain the dominant barriers to women’s leadership advancement. It contributes a theoretically grounded structural measurement model and offers evidence-based implications for gender-equitable policy design, organizational reform, and leadership across transitioning economies.