Potential Occurrence Area Prediction of Pine Wilt Disease in Xinjiang by Maximum Entropy Model

(1) Background: Since its introduction to China, PWD has caused severe damage to coniferous forests in affected areas. Currently, the disease continues to expand towards the northwest regions, posing a serious threat to the ecological security of Xinjiang. (2) Methods: This study utilized MaxEnt model to predict the potential transmission areas of PWD and the potential suitable habitats of Monochamus saltuarius. After coupling the results of both, the potential occurrence areas of PWD in Xinjiang were ultimately determined. (3) Results: Human factors are the main driving forces behind the spread of PWD, with activities in scenic areas and human impact factors playing a key role in transmission. Altitude and Isothermality are the primary limiting factors for vector insects. Xinjiang has potential occurrence areas of PWD, covering 88% of the total coniferous forest area in Xinjiang. (4) Conclusions: Urumqi City, Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture, and the Altay Prefecture are high-risk areas for PWD. This study clarifies the potential transmission routes of PWD and analyzes its high-risk areas, providing a scientific basis for forestry and relevant departments to implement prevention and control measures.