EU-Accession Sentiment and Behavioral Biases in Coastal Real Estate Investment: Evidence from an EU-Candidate Market

This paper investigates the behavioral bases supporting real estate investment choices within the newly developing European market through the analysis of EU-accession optimism-driven cognitive and social heuristic activation. Based on the cross-sectional survey design using data collected from 462 respondents within the Vlora region in Albania, this study uses the PLS-SEM model, including hypotheses that examine the mediating and moderating effects of anchoring, overconfidence, and herding. Results indicated that the positive direct effect of EU-related optimism on investment intention is significant (β = 0.42, p < 0.001), as well as that on price expectations (β = 0.37, p < 0.01). The partial mediation effect of anchoring between optimism and investment intention is significant (β = 0.31, p < 0.05), which is additionally strengthened by overconfidence and herding. The multi-group test further confirmed the presence of significant behavioral divergence among locals, diaspora Albanians, Kosovo Albanians, and European visitors, underlining the crucial influence of informational distance and external reference pricing on bias creation. By treating the process of EU accession as a sentiment-based process rather than a strictly macroeconomic process, this study seeks to make a contribution to the field of behavioral finance related to real assets.