Advancing from Conceptual to Numerical Modeling: Reducing Uncertainty in the Data-Scarce Dili Intergranular Aquifer System, Timor-Leste

Dili, the capital of Timor-Leste, is experiencing increasing freshwater demand driven by population and economic growth. It totally relies on groundwater from the Dili Intergranular Aquifer System for supply. There is very little conceptual understanding of the system and little-to-no monitoring data. Understanding the hydrostratigraphy, recharge and surface-groundwater interactions, groundwater levels and abstractions are essential for sustainable groundwater use and management. These are the aims of this study, and a numerical model was created with such purpose. The model included scenarios to assess how the aquifer could react to future increases in groundwater abstraction. Trial and error calibrated the steady-state model, and a comparison of simulated results with observed heads revealed good agreement (RMS