Latency-Constrained UAV Operations over SATCOM: A System-Level Analytical Framework Incorporating Stochastic Jitter Modelling, Adaptive Autonomy, and Regulatory Consolidation

Satellite communication (SATCOM) has emerged as a critical enabler of beyond-line-of-sight (BLOS) unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operations, yet its role as a constraining factor on UAV control performance and mission safety has received insufficient analytical treatment. This paper presents a comprehensive, system-level analytical framework that models end-to-end communication latency across the SATCOM pipeline and directly links it to UAV control responsiveness, mission safety, and autonomy requirements. The framework proceeds through four integrated contributions. First, a deterministic latency decomposition model establishes governing equations that define the critical velocity threshold and the autonomy transition boundary for human-in-the-loop UAV teleoperation. Second, this deterministic model is extended into a probabilistic framework by incorporating stochastic jitter arising from low-earth orbit (LEO) satellite handovers, enabling the derivation of a probability of safety breach metric that replaces binary operational thresholds with continuous risk quantification. Third, an adaptive autonomy control architecture is proposed, in which UAV systems monitor real-time link performance and dynamically adjust velocity and control authority in response to measured latency conditions. Fourth, the regulatory implications of the framework are examined, identifying pathways toward latency-aware UAV operational standards. Across three representative operational scenarios — urban surveillance, remote infrastructure inspection, and disaster response — the results demonstrate that geostationary earth orbit (GEO) SATCOM constrains safe teleoperation to low-speed regimes, while LEO constellations extend the operable envelope but introduce jitter-driven risk. The proposed framework provides a principled, durable basis for communication architecture selection, autonomy system design, and the development of latency-aware standards for next-generation unmanned aerial systems.