Population Growth Drives Forest Loss and Land-Use Change in Bayelsa State, Nigeria (2000-2020)

Rationale: Rapid population growth and urban expansion in Bayelsa State have exerted substantial pressure on forest and wetland ecosystems, leading to deforestation and land-use changes that threaten ecological integrity and human well-being. Understanding spatial patterns and anthropogenic impacts is critical for informed policy and sustainable management.Objectives: This study aimed to (1) characterize the spatial distribution of forest and wetland resources and identify areas minimally affected by human activities, (2) quantify land-use and forest cover changes from 2000 to 2020, and (3) assess the extent to which population growth has driven ecosystem depletion. Methods: Secondary datasets, including satellite imagery, census data, and previous LULC studies, were analyzed using GIS and ArcGIS 10.5. Land-use and forest cover changes were quantified across LGAs over two decades. Population growth patterns were correlated with forest depletion, and results were presented via maps, tables, and statistical summaries. Results: Between 2000 and 2020, total forest cover declined by 30%, with mangrove forests experiencing >25% loss and freshwater swamps declining by 17%. Built-up areas increased by 81%, with the highest expansion in Yenagoa, Ogbia, and Sagbama LGAs. Approximately 40% of forests remained relatively undisturbed, primarily in northern LGAs. Population growth ranged from 48% to 52% across LGAs, showing strong positive correlation with forest and wetland loss. Spatial analysis highlighted coastal and peri-urban LGAs as hotspots of anthropogenic pressure. Conclusion: Population growth and urban expansion are primary drivers of forest and land-use change in Bayelsa State. Ecosystem fragmentation and wetland degradation pose long-term environmental and socio-economic risks. Recommendations: Immediate enforcement of logging regulations, targeted restoration of degraded forests, and integration of population dynamics into land-use planning are recommended. Community-based conservation and sustainable livelihood programs should be prioritized. Forest and wetland loss compromise water quality, food security, and vector control, increasing the risk of infectious diseases and malnutrition, particularly in high-density LGAs.