From Price Shocks to Stability: The Role of Energy Communities in Electricity Market Volatility and Uncertainty

Renewable energy communities (RECs) are increasingly recognized as a strategic instrument for enhancing energy system resilience, promoting local renewable integration, and reducing consumer exposure to electricity market volatility. This study assesses the economic performance of RECs relative to individual consumers using high-frequency hourly data from 2021 to 2023, covering both the 2022 European energy crisis and the subsequent Italian regulatory reform of incentive mechanisms. An optimized REC configuration is developed to maximize shared photovoltaic generation and minimize external grid dependence. Through panel econometric analysis, we estimate the sensitivity of economic value to electricity price fluctuations and demonstrate that RECs exhibit significantly lower price dependence than standalone consumers. To complement these findings, machine learning techniques and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis are employed to capture non-linear dynamics and quantify the relative contribution of electricity prices to value formation. Results consistently show that while market prices remain an important determinant, RECs substantially attenuate their impact, particularly during periods of extreme price stress. A policy counterfactual comparison between pre- and post-reform incentive structures further indicates that the revised regulatory framework introduces a more stable and counter-cyclical compensation mechanism, strengthening the protective role of RECs. Overall, the study provides robust empirical evidence that renewable energy communities function not only as instruments for renewable deployment but also as effective mechanisms for economic stabilization under volatile market conditions.