Analysis of Open Unemployment Rates in Indonesia Based on GRDP and the Percentage of Poor Population Using Nonparametric B-Spline Regression

Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) is a crucial indicator of the condition of the job market and the economy in Indonesia. This research is to modeling and analyzes the impact of GRDP and the percentage of poor population to the OUR in Indonesia using nonparametric B-Spline regression. The study applied B-Spline model due to the model’s property of handling non-linear associations without imposing any distributional assumptions. The research a used secondary data sourced from BPS Indonesia in 2024, which included 38 provinces in Indonesia. The analysis outcomes show that optimal model is achieved when the order was set at 2 for both GRDP and the percentage of poor population with one knot set at GRDP (1.055) and two knots set at the percentage of poor population (6.813333 and 11.583333) which gave a minimum GCV produced at 1.577369. The model’s coefficient of determination value of 0.7454 indicates that the model can explain 74.54% of the variation in the OUR is explained by GRDP and the percentage of poor population, with the remaining 25.46% is impacted by factors beyond the model.