ПІДХОДИ ДО ОЦІНКИ ЕФЕКТИВНОСТІ ФОРСАЙТ-МЕТОДІВ ДЛЯ МАРКЕТИНГУ ІТ-ПРОДУКТІВ

Abstract. The article considers current issues regarding the assessment of the effectiveness of foresight methods for marketing IT products. It is noted that foresight, as a methodology for studying the future and its alternatives, is used in strategic planning to identify priority areas of technological development and create forecast scenarios of innovative changes. It acts not only as a forecasting tool, but also as a mechanism for designing future market configurations that have a direct impact on the marketing processes of IT products and digital platform ecosystems. In the modern digital economy, the effectiveness of marketing activities is traditionally assessed through a system of operational and financial indicators, such as ROI, CAC, LTV, market share and conversion rates. However, these indicators mainly reflect the results of the implementation of short- and medium-term marketing activities and are not able to adequately characterize the impact of foresight methods aimed at forming long-term strategic prerequisites for the development of IT products and digital platforms. Market foresight, or foresight-oriented marketing, has a fundamentally different nature. Its function is not to stimulate existing demand, but to identify, model and design future market configurations, technological trajectories and architectures of platform ecosystems. In this context, foresight does not directly affect the financial result, but the quality of strategic decisions, the structure of the product portfolio, the innovative orientation of the company and its ability to integrate into future technological waves. A system of indicators for assessing the effectiveness of foresight-oriented marketing of IT products and a conceptual scheme for an integrated assessment of the effectiveness of foresight methods in IT product marketing are proposed, which reflects the logical flow of transformation of external factors and information signals into a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of the company's activities. A calculation model of the integral foresight effectiveness index (EIF) and methods for calculating its components are presented. The methodology proposed in the study allows not only to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of foresight activities, but also to identify relationships between cognitive, strategic, platform and economic effects, which contributes to the formation of scientifically based recommendations for strategic marketing of IT products. Its scientific novelty lies in the systemic integration of four blocks of efficiency and the use of normalized indicators, which provides a comprehensive, quantitatively-oriented assessment of foresight methods and increases the practical value of the methodology for managing the development of IT companies in conditions of high technological and market uncertainty.