Evaluating the Relationship between Private Childcare Services and Maternal Labour Force Participation in Türkiye Using VECM

The study aims to examine the relationship between private childcare services and mothers' labour force participation. To this end, data from the 2007-2023 period are analysed using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and also Granger Causality methods. According to the findings, the number of students enrolled in private kindergartens and nurseries, institutions affiliated with the Ministry of Family and Social Services [MoFSS], and nurseries opened in businesses negatively affects mothers' labour force participation in the long term. However, in the short term, these factors have a positive effect on mothers' labour force participation. Furthermore, the analysis results show that COVID-19 reduced mothers' labour force participation rates in both the long and short term, but this effect is more pronounced in the short term. According to the Granger causality test results, the number of students enrolled in private kindergartens and nurseries, institutions affiliated with the MoFSS, and nurseries opened in businesses does not statistically significantly predict mothers' labour force participation. In other words, these childcare services do not play a causal role in mothers' participation in the labour market. Conversely, the rate of mothers' participation in the labour force affects enrolment in these institutions.