Estimating component probability of failure at USACE Civil Works facilities for asset management

Infrastructure components are the building blocks of US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) facilities such as navigation locks and dams. Estimates of component probability of failure are needed to support risk-informed decisions about managing and maintaining these systems and their components. At Inland Navigation (INAV) facilities, the models and methods currently in use are based on an expert elicitation. There is a need for more objective estimates of component probability of failure derived from data using statistical models and methods. This report demonstrates these models and methods and describes what kinds of data would be needed to put them into practice. The major impediment to putting these models and methods into practice is a lack of data on the age, performance, and other characteristics of in-service components. It will take time to develop these data. In the meantime, this report describes how these statistical methods and models can be adapted for use with operational condition assessment (OCA) ratings, which USACE maintains in an existing database at the enterprise scale. Finally, this report describes an analytical approach to criticality assessment, which is a systematic process for identifying which components, if failed, would lead to significant operational disruptions.