As Permian Shifts From Expansion to Endurance, Shale Producers Reach for More EOR, Horseshoe Wells, and AI

_ The Permian Basin has been the engine of growth behind the US shale revolution over the past 15 years, smashing records and expectations all along the way. But there are reasons to believe that the region is starting a new chapter that will be focused more on endurance than expansion. Public data shows tight oil production growth in the basin might be cresting. The region’s rig count in December according to Baker Hughes was about 250, down from slightly over 300 a year earlier. Waves of consolidation have reduced workforces and left fewer big deals to expect, but they have also concentrated many of the remaining untapped drilling locations among the biggest operators that are planning to stay put for a long time. As the realities of managing a maturing basin settle in, technologies and strategies that can support a long production plateau are becoming a bigger part of the conversation. At the recent Permian Basin Energy Conference (PBEC) in Midland, Texas, some of the region’s top operators pointed to the positive impacts of large cube developments, simultaneous completions, horseshoe well designs, expanded automation of wellhead and lift systems, and field-level optimization driven by artificial intelligence (AI). But challenges related to sourcing power for the region’s newest wells that must rely on artificial lift early in their life were also discussed. One of the most telling indicators of the basin’s maturity comes from two of the Permian’s heavyweights, Chevron and Occidental Petroleum, both of which highlighted their plans to launch large-scale unconventional enhanced oil recovery (EOR) programs. Tertiary recovery has played a minor role in the story of the US shale sector, long overshadowed by the returns made from developing Tier 1 source rock. But as that top-tier inventory thins, unconventional EOR may soon show its value in improving the economics of the remaining high-quality rock and, more importantly, the Tier 2 and Tier 3 locations. Chevron Adopts Chemical EOR for Shale Chevron is the largest Permian operator to announce plans to achieve a flat production profile over the next 15 years at about 1 million BOE/D. One technology it plans to use to reach that goal is a proprietary surfactant called CS-1. Though the surfactant works in older wells, Chevron has emphasized that it will apply the EOR treatment in “all applicable” new well stimulations. The adoption of chemical EOR by Chevron comes after its field pilots delivered production increases ranging from 5,000 to 40,000 bbl. The supermajor reports on its website that it expects an average 10% incremental recovery from the chemistry, which it has shared details of at industry gatherings in recent years. Mohamad Salman, a petroleum engineer for Chevron, spoke at PBEC about the surfactant and is also the lead author of URTeC 4260303, a 2025 paper that provides more updates about the company’s laboratory work and field pilots. Salman explained in Midland that the surfactant unlocks otherwise trapped oil by causing a “major” reduction in the interfacial tension between the reservoir’s oil and water, while also changing rock wettability from oil-wet to water-wet.