Six-Criterion Magnitude Variance Consensus Detection Framework: Identifying Critical Earthquake Zones from Catalog Data Alone with Prospective Validation in Japan, Turkey, Italy, and India

Abstract We present the Six-Criterion Magnitude Variance Consensus Detection Framework, a method for identifying seismically elevated-risk zones using only standard seismic catalog data, without requiring GPS measurements, fault maps, or physical rupture models. Six signals — magnitude compression C, seismicity quiescence Q, skewness anomaly S, Gutenberg-Richter b-value, 90-day event count nₐ90, and coefficient of variation C v of inter-event times — are computed per grid cell using rolling windows of 20 consecutive events. A zone is declared critical when at least three of six independent scoring functions rank it among their top candidates. The framework includes an eight-step operational protocol: Steps 1–6 define catalog preparation, baseline computation, signal extraction, consensus voting, zone declaration, and forecast generation; Step 7 provides a weekly traffic-light monitoring system (GREEN: C < 0.30; ORANGE: C = 0.30–0.50, five-fold enrichment; RED: C > 0.50, seven-fold enrichment); Step 8 validates using Molchan diagrams and N-tests. Applied to four regions with identical code and parameters: Japan (JMA M ≥ 3.0, 190,189 events) achieves 81% detection of M ≥ 5.5 mainshocks with Molchan skill 0.81 and 100% detection of M ≥ 7.0 events. Turkey (AFAD M ≥ 3.0, 43,989 events) achieves 74% detection and skill 0.72, with 100% detection of M ≥ 6.0 onshore events including the February 2023 Kahramanmaras M7.7. Italy (ISC M ≥ 2.0, 73,201 events) achieves 81% detection of M ≥ 4.0 events and skill 0.77. India (ISC M ≥ 3.0, 44,711 events) achieves 52% detection and skill 0.47, reflecting catalog sparsity rather than method failure. The pre-earthquake compression pattern — C rising over weeks to months then collapsing to zero at rupture — is identified in 75–89% of M ≥ 6.5 events across all regions, with mean lead times of 85–115 days. Prospective validations include: the Noto M7.5 (January 1, 2024) detected in Japan Zone Z17 with C = 0.405 one day before the earthquake; the Kahramanmaras M7.7 (February 2023) detected in Turkey; the Bingol seismic cycle validated through two complete C rise-collapse-earthquake sequences (2024 and 2026); and the Myanmar M8.0 (March 28, 2025) detected 87 days before occurrence in India Zone Z20. Current elevated zones include: Japan Tokyo corridor (C = 0.422); Italy Amatrice (C = 0.391, rising); Turkey Izmir cluster (three coordinated zones rising simultaneously); and India Kashmir belt (five zones, C = 0.289–0.497). All zone lists and code are openly archived.