Modeling the Impacts of Demand Drivers on Future Building Thermal Energy Demand in Chinese Cities

Abstract Future changes in climate, demographic, and socioeconomic factors will deeply influence urban building energy demand. We apply an integrated modeling approach to investigate the impacts of the above drivers on building thermal energy service demand in 336 Chinese cities in 2020-2060. We find that China’s urban building floor area will not decrease significantly due to ongoing urbanization and increasing floor area per capita. However, future trajectories of building thermal energy demand vary substantially across cities due to huge heterogeneity in floor area and intensity of energy demand, suggesting the need for tailored infrastructure planning and policy interventions. Future warming greatly changes demand patterns, reducing heating demand by 24% but increasing cooling demand by 27% compared with no warming in 2060. Compact urban development and building energy efficiency improvements are key demand-side measures, potentially reducing heating (cooling) demand in 2060 by 27% (24%) and 22% (11%) relative to a scenario with limited policy interventions.