Improving Agricultural Water Use in the Texas High Plains: A Strategic Approach to Crop Switching and Optimal Land Allocation

Abstract Agriculture in the Texas High Plains relies heavily on groundwater from the Ogallala Aquifer, making water scarcity a persistent challenge. This study develops a county level optimization framework assessing whether reallocating irrigated land among corn, cotton, and sorghum can reduce groundwater use without undermining farm profitability. Using panel data from 2000–2022 for 41 counties, profit-maximizing (PMAX) and water-minimizing (WMIN) land allocations are compared under price uncertainty. Profit-oriented crop reallocation alone reduces regional irrigation water use from approximately 2.27 million acre-feet under baseline to about 1.78 million acre-feet under PMAX, a 21.90% reduction. An explicit water-minimization objective at a 5% expected-profit tolerance lowers water use only marginally further, to 1.77 million acre-feet (22.03% below baseline), because PMAX and WMIN select the same allocation in 38 of the 41 counties. Additional conservation beyond PMAX is concentrated in three counties (Donley, Roberts, and Randall) which together yield 2,903 acre-feet of extra savings at a total expected-profit sacrifice of about $272,041, implying a regional weighted Groundwater Abatement Price of approximately $93.70 per acre-foot. Most of the water-saving potential from crop switching is therefore already captured by profit-maximizing behavior, with remaining cost-effective conservation opportunities spatially concentrated rather than widespread across the region.