Future projections of Climate Hazards in Urban and Rural Areas for European Cities Using Euro-CORDEX ensemble

Abstract Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of environmental hazards, with distinct impacts in urban and rural areas. Cities can experience amplified risks due to the urban heat island effect and increased exposure to extremes. We analyze climate extreme indices using Euro-CORDEX regional climate models that include urban representations, focusing on 40 cities and their surrounding rural areas. Our findings highlight that city-scale hazards intensify with warming across the domain, while precipitation responses are strongly regional. Mediterranean cities exhibit robust drying and longer dry spells, whereas central and northern European cities experience the strongest and most widespread increases in heavy-precipitation extremes. Urban–rural contrasts strengthen several hazard metrics, particularly minimum-temperature extremes, with the strongest signals found in inland cities, underscoring the need for targeted adaptation measures. Understanding how global warming impacts these hazard indices is crucial for developing climate-resilient policies and strategies tailored to both urban and rural settings.