Future Land Use Scenarios for Pasture in the Brazilian Cerrado: Agriculture, Livestock and Regeneration

Abstract Pastures cover approximately 47 Mha (24%) of the Brazilian Cerrado and vary widely in productivity. As Brazil seeks to expand soybean and livestock production while advancing climate and conservation commitments, an important regional question is whether projected demand can be accommodated without additional deforestation. We develop two zero-deforestation land-use scenarios for 2030 that integrate projected cattle herd growth and soybean expansion with spatially explicit pasture intensification. Using the Century ecosystem model, we estimate changes in pasture carrying capacity, allocate a projected herd of 61 million animal units, identify areas suitable for soybean expansion, and evaluate the regeneration potential of remaining pasturelands. We then quantify changes in aboveground, belowground, and soil carbon stocks through 2050 relative to a business-as-usual baseline. Under modeled biophysical conditions and assuming rapid adoption of improved pasture management, upgrading ~13 Mha of low- and medium-vigor pasture could allow livestock production to occupy ~29 Mha, freeing 3.1 Mha for soybean expansion and ~18 Mha for native vegetation regeneration or alternative uses. These land-use transitions increase regional carbon stocks by up to 0.23 Pg by 2030 and 0.47 Pg by 2050. While implementation depends on institutional, financial, and adoption constraints, the scenarios illustrate the potential for integrated land-use planning to support agricultural production, climate mitigation, and ecosystem restoration within the Cerrado.