Assessing the effects of climate change on temperature for Iraq using SSP scenarios

Abstract Iraq is among the five countries most affected by extreme temperatures, low precipitation, drought, and desertification. In Iraq, water and agricultural resources are under stress due to population growth and urbanization. Changes in temperature and precipitation, combined with more frequent and severe droughts and heat waves, could strain resources and increase vulnerability. This study uses ERA5 reanalysis data from 1951 to 2023 to assess the effects of climate change on temperature in Iraq and three cities: Mosul, Baghdad, and Basra. Also, this study uses the statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset, which includes the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). To estimate temperature changes, four distinct SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) were chosen from global climate models. According to the findings, Iraq's temperature would rise more quickly than the global average. Under SSP5-8.5, the predicted temperature would increase by 7.2°C between 2071 and 2100 relative to the baseline. Rising temperatures will adversely affect human health and water resources, while variability in seasonal and sub-seasonal precipitation will exacerbate these risks. Temporal analysis demonstrates that to adapt to the changing climate, particularly the rapid changes resulting from the SSP5-8.5 scenario, it is imperative to strengthen adaptation and mitigation measures nationwide and build capacity.