Food Inflation, Household Food Insecurity, and Coping Strategies in Urban Ethiopia

Abstract Food inflation in Addis Ababa has critically undermined household purchasing power, reshaping food security and coping responses. This study examines the nexus between household food security, inflation perceptions, and coping strategies in Ethiopia’s capital through a cross‑sectional mixed‑methods design conducted between October and December 2024. Using stratified two‑stage cluster sampling, 624 households across eleven sub‑cities were surveyed. Data collection combined digital questionnaires, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions. Results revealed entrenched vulnerabilities, average family size was 3.6, 78.9% of households were female-headed, and 89.3% classified as ultra-poor. Education and employment emerged as determined, with 81.7% of high school and 78.4% of college-educated households achieving acceptable Food Consumption Scores (FCS), compared to 71.4% of uneducated households moderately insecure. Government employees reported 81.9% acceptable consumption, while 20.0% of casual laborers fell into poor categories. Wealth disparities were stark, with 63.2% of better-off households’ food secure versus 50.6% of ultra-poor. Coping intensity was highest among younger heads and larger families, with 86.4% shifting to cheaper foods. Inflation perceptions were severe, 70.2% rated current inflation “very high,” and 78.2% reported “very significant” increases over 12 months. Institutional supports offered partial buffers. Urban productive safety net participation was linked to severe coping (19.6%), while non-participants remained largely in low coping (87.7%, p < 0.001). Health insurance modestly reduced “very high” perceptions, and informal safety nets such as Idir proved strongly protective (89.9% low coping, p < 0.001). Econometric analysis confirmed robust fit, with FCS strongest (pseudo-R² 0.22–0.24). Education, employment, and wealth consistently improved outcomes, while PSNP participation and consumer association membership reduced FCS. Findings underscore that food security is both economic and perceptual. Policy responses must integrate inflation-indexed urban safety nets, pension reform, expanded health insurance, and accessible credit, while embedding informal mechanisms such as Idir into formal protection systems. Transparent market information and recognition of women’s adaptive roles are vital to stabilize expectations and promote equitable coping in Ethiopia’s rapidly urbanizing context.