Economic Development, Natural Resource Rents in Africa: A spatial Analysis

Abstract This paper analyzes the relationship between natural resources and economic development in Africa through spatial econometric models applied to World Bank data covering 53 countries. Using variables such as GDP per capita, Human Capital Index (HCI), and Overall Governance (OG), the study combines OLS, SAR, SEM, and SDM approaches to capture spatial patterns. The results show that natural resources have a significant negative effect on economic development, confirming the persistence of the “resource curse” across the continent. While the OLS model suggests positive contributions of governance and human capital, accounting for spatial dependence alters these effects: the SAR model shows no robust significance, the SEM model confirms the importance of HCI, and the SDM highlights the negative role of resource rents. In addition, exports contribute positively to growth, whereas population size and physical capital investment exert downward pressure on GDP per capita. Overall, the findings stress that natural resources alone do not drive development, and that strengthening governance and human capital is essential to foster sustainable economic growth in Africa. JEL: O13, Q32, R12