From Global War Risk to Social Nutrition Outcomes: A Political Economy Analysis of Food System Resilience

Abstract This study examines how global war risk propagates through macroeconomic instability and food system structures to shape social nutrition outcomes in Indonesia. Adopting a political economy perspective, food and nutrition are treated as outcomes of systemic interactions among geopolitical conflict, global economic turbulence, and institutional resilience rather than as isolated policy issues. Using Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling with annual data from 2010–2023, the analysis traces structural linkages from global war risk to global economic turbulence, school nutrition program resilience, food system resilience, and student-level nutrition outcomes. The results show that global war risk is associated with heightened economic turbulence, which generates differentiated effects across nutrition programs and food systems. Food system resilience emerges as a central downstream mechanism connecting macro-level shocks to social nutrition impacts. By integrating geopolitical risk, macroeconomic dynamics, and food–nutrition systems within a unified structural framework, this study contributes to evolutionary political economy debates on global instability.