Temporal variations in the relationship between educational inequality and spatial disparity: Emerging patterns across the physical region of Azerbaijan, Iran

Abstract Despite decades of development interventions, regional inequalities have persisted and, in many cases, become more complex in their spatial and structural configurations. One underexplored aspect of this process is the changing role of educational inequality in shaping spatial disparities. Most existing studies treat the education–space relationship as static, overlooking how its influence may weaken, transform, or re-emerge under shifting regional development. This study examines the temporal evolution of the relationship between educational inequality and spatial disparity at the regional scale. Composite indices of educational and spatial inequality were developed using Exploratory Factor Analysis, and Geographically Weighted Regression was applied to capture spatial non-stationarity across three periods. This combined approach enables the identification of spatial heterogeneity and structural change. The results reveal a three-phase transformation. Initially, educational inequality acts as the dominant driver of spatial disparity. In the second phase, its explanatory power diminishes as urban concentration and infrastructural centralization gain importance. In the most recent phase, educational inequality re-emerges within a more complex multi-causal system, interacting with infrastructural, environmental, and spatial dynamics. Overall, the findings show that spatial inequality arises from dynamic interactions among human, infrastructural, and environmental systems, highlighting the need for temporally sensitive and spatially informed policy approaches.