International trade drives unequal impacts on Nature’s Contributions to People

Abstract International trade can have disproportionate impacts on nature, economies, and livelihoods. How international trade impacts Nature’s Contributions to People (NCP), the contributions of nature to people’s wellbeing, at fine spatial resolutions is unknown. Yet, this is critical for developing sustainable and equitable trade and land-use policy solutions. Here, we produce global estimates of how deforestation embodied in international trade in commodities degrades NCPs at a fine resolution, including pollination, water quality regulation, climate regulation, and biodiversity, between 2000 and 2015. Our study revealed previously unknown connections between local NCP change hotspots and consumption through international trade. We show that 15%–85% of the annual global losses of NCPs could be attributable to economically developed countries, representing a 0.4%-9.5% decrease relative to 2000. We find substantial spatial heterogeneity in NCP loss due to trade, with the greatest losses within countries that rely most heavily on sectors that depend on natural capital. Our results provide unprecedented insight into the pathways by which global trade impacts nature and people at fine resolutions, and the implications for who bears the costs and benefits of international trade. This should inform policies to promote more equitable trade and land-use outcomes.