Africa’s Water Revenue Paradox

Abstract Rural Africa has increasingly fallen behind global progress for provision of safe drinking water by both percentage of population and aggregate numbers. Billions of US dollars have been invested, though a lack of accurate revenue data questions the financial sustainability of these decisions. The enduring paradox is why water supply infrastructure investments fail to generate revenue to ensure service sustainability. This study offers empirical insights based on 11,957 years of verified revenue data from 6,190 piped schemes and handpumps in 11 countries between 2021 and 2024. Findings report that handpumps generated a median annual revenue of USD26 per year with non-payment and outliers excluded. In 2024, 61% of handpumps provided no revenue. Piped water schemes generated a median revenue of USD0.75 per m 3 of water, with a median annual consumption per person of 0.82 m 3 . Based on these data, a revenue prediction model was developed using machine learning to illustrate an objective approach to improve public finance investment decisions for project design, tariff setting, subsidy provision, and infrastructure choice. Pathways to overcome Africa’s water revenue paradox are then defined.