Demand rebalancing in Italy’s wine industry: cohort replacement, habit persistence, and policy-relevant demand dynamics

Abstract Wine markets in mature economies are increasingly characterised by moderation and premiumisation. Yet long-run demand hinges on how often consumers drink wine. Using repeated cross-sections from the Italian “Aspetti della Vita Quotidiana” survey (1997–2023), we build a pseudo-panel and estimate dynamic age-cohort models of habitual wine consumption, with period conditions captured through macroeconomic proxies. Three results emerge. First, wine consumption is strongly persistent at the cohort level, consistent with habit formation and slow adjustment. Second, after accounting for age and covariates, younger cohorts (Generation X, Millennials and Generation Z) consume wine substantially less than older cohorts, indicating structural cohort replacement. Third, sustainability-oriented lifestyle measures do not robustly predict consumption frequency, whereas meat-centred dietary patterns and economic resources are positively associated with wine, suggesting the endurance of meal-based practices. Regional estimates show sharper cohort declines in the North/Centre than in the South/Islands. Implications for segmentation and demand forecasting are discussed.