Impact of armed conflicts on trust in government: Study of rural area of Nigeria

Abstract Households in rural areas are predominantly engaged in farming activities and are particularly vulnerable to external shocks, including violent conflicts perpetrated by various actors. These households often rely on the government to provide protection and to take responsibility for mitigating such threats. This study examines how exposure to conflict influences households’ trust in government, comparing rural and urban populations in Nigeria. Using cross-sectional data, we employ a linear probability model with fixed effects to estimate the relationship between conflict incidents and levels of institutional trust. The results indicate that an increase in conflict incidents in rural areas is significantly associated with a decline in trust in the government’s ability to perform effectively. This finding is not entirely unexpected, given that a large proportion of the population living in poverty resides in rural regions and thus experiences a higher degree of vulnerability to insecurity. The study therefore underscores the need to strengthen the security architecture in rural communities, as improving safety and stability in these areas could play a crucial role in restoring and sustaining public trust in government institutions