Unified Creep Model for Geological Hazards with Endogenous-Exogenous Coupling Mechanism

Abstract Geological hazards are not isolated events within the Earth system; rather, they exhibit complex interactions that can trigger cascading effects1. Revealing the coupling mechanisms between endogenous damage-healing processes and exogenous loading, and clarifying their dominant roles at different creep stages, has become an urgent priority in hazard prediction research. Based on the power-law relationship between displacement and rate, we propose a unified creep model for geological hazards: Ω(t)=A(t)Ω n(t), where Ω represents displacement or strain, A(t) is the endogenous damage parameter, and n(t) denotes the exogenous loading parameter. This model comprehensively describes the deceleration, steady-state, and acceleration stages of creep and is applicable to various geological hazards such as landslides, volcanic eruptions, rock bursts, glacier movements, and fault slips. Furthermore, it can be extended to engineering materials, including metal alloys, polymers, and asphalt concrete. Through mathematical transformation, this model unifies the Voight, Saito, Andrade, and Monkman-Grant creep models2-5, revealing the power-law dynamics shared by both geological and engineering materials. Based on the analytical solution of the model, we discovered a linear relationship between Ω(1-n) and the remaining time to failure tf-t, thereby establishing a novel method for predicting creep and failure time that has been validated across multiple disaster scenarios. Furthermore, we established an endogenous-exogenous A-n coupling analysis framework to elucidate the dominant factors influencing each stage of creep deformation. This framework systematically deciphers the damage-healing-relocking process of fault zones under earthquake disturbances, as well as the disaster mechanisms associated with the slow sliding of giant rock landslides, volcanic flank collapses, and glacial slips. The model not only functions as a practical tool for hazard prediction but also clarifies the interactions among multiple hazards, thereby providing a theoretical foundation for understanding the complex cascade effects of disasters within the Earth system.