Long-Term Desiccation Dynamics: AI-Driven Projections of the Dead Sea’s Fate Through 2345

Abstract The Dead Sea, located within the Dead Sea Transform Fault System (DSTFS), is experiencing a severe hydrological decline marked by rapid decreases in both water level and surface area. This study analyzed long-term changes using a 1970 baseline map and multi-temporal satellite datasets from the USGS archive, integrating high-resolution Sentinel imagery with Landsat (1–9) data covering 1975–2025. Historical results reveal a pronounced multi-phase recession, with the most rapid contraction occurring between 1970 and 1985, when the sea lost approximately 28.49% of its surface area at a peak rate of 34.21 km² per year, leading to the complete desiccation of the southern basin. Future projections were generated using a Multivariate Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model combined with bathymetric analysis to forecast conditions until 2345. The results indicate a continued and irreversible decline, with a total surface area reduction of 55.31%, shrinking the Dead Sea to about 317.1 km² and lowering the water level to approximately − 637.4 m, ultimately transforming it into a hypersaline remnant basin.