An Integrated Framework for Construction Risk Prediction and Project Delay Reduction in Public Infrastructure Projects

Abstract This study proposes an integrated framework for construction risk prediction and project delay reduction in public infrastructure projects. Public infrastructure developments frequently experience schedule overruns, cost increases, and operational disruptions due to technical, environmental, managerial, operational, and resource-related risks. Conventional approaches often assess these risk factors separately, limiting their ability to capture the interactions that influence project performance. To address this limitation, the proposed framework integrates risk identification, risk assessment, delay prediction, and mitigation prioritization within a unified analytical process. Project information is obtained from construction schedules, site inspection reports, procurement records, environmental assessments, and resource management documents. The framework applies a Construction Risk Score (CRS) to measure overall project risk exposure and a Delay Probability Index (DPI) to estimate the likelihood of schedule disruption. Project activities are classified into low, medium, and high risk categories to support monitoring and mitigation planning. The framework demonstration suggests that technical and resource related risks may account for a significant share of project vulnerability and exhibit strong associations with schedule delays. Activities exposed to multiple risk categories demonstrate greater delay potential than those affected by a single risk factor. The findings suggest that integrated risk assessment can support project control, resource planning, and informed decision-making, providing a practical approach for reducing delays in public infrastructure projects.