Wine crisis in Mendoza: structural deterioration and spread of insolvency risk

Mendoza's wine industry is undergoing a structural crisis that surpasses ordinary economic cycles and exposes a profound deterioration in productive, financial, and territorial sustainability. This article examines how the convergence of overstock, declining consumption, regulatory weakening, market concentration, and financial fragility creates a systemic risk scenario that spreads throughout the entire value chain. Drawing on recent developments-including the flexibilization of the CIU, the expansion of dealcoholized wine, historically low sales levels, and the emergence of significant insolvency proceedings-the analysis highlights the increasing likelihood of contractual breaches and preventive bankruptcy filings. The study contrasts Mendoza's reactive policy responses with the European Union's comprehensive approach, where wine is treated as a strategic territorial, cultural, and socioeconomic asset. It concludes that the absence of robust countercyclical instruments and stable institutional mechanisms, such as a fully operational Wine Bank, exacerbates sectoral fragility and accelerates the diffusion of insolvency risk.