Predicting the Payment Preference for CBDC: A Discrete Choice Experiment

To overcome the lack of data in predicting the payment preference for central bank digital currency (CBDC), we conducted a discrete choice experiment that varied the attributes of payment methods among over 3,500 participants in Korea. We identified key attributes, such as the discount rate and the issuance form, that shape the demand for payment methods. The predicted usage shares of existing payment methods closely align with their actual usage patterns in Korea, which lends credible support for the external validity of our experimental design. Building on this validation, we further predict that CBDC, when introduced, will be preferred over cash and mobile fast payment but less preferred than credit and debit cards, with its adoption rate as the most preferred payment method ranging 19 ~ 27% of respondents.