Ambiguity Aversion and Citizen Expectations of Government Response to UAP Reports

Abstract Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) have entered formal governmental discourse in Canada, creating a policy environment characterized by institutional acknowledgment without definitive explanation. Such contexts generate ambiguity rather than measurable risk. This paper examines whether variation in ambiguity aversion predicts public expectations of government response to UAP reports. Using data from the 2025 Sky Canada Project (N = 1,008), the analysis constructs an Ambiguity Averse Epistemic Orientation (AAEO) index based on concern, security framing, and intolerance of sustained epistemic indeterminacy. Results indicate that higher ambiguity aversion is strongly associated with support for government action and public funding for investigation, even after controlling for issue salience and demographic characteristics. Disclosure expectations are also positively related to ambiguity aversion but are more sensitive to attention and engagement. A composite index of government involvement performs weakly, suggesting that public expectations are multidimensional rather than unidimensional. The findings extend ambiguity aversion theory beyond laboratory settings and demonstrate its relevance for understanding public demand for institutional escalation under acknowledged indeterminacy.