Can strategic dependencies harm the acceleration towards the net-zero transition? The case of the lithium-ion battery industry

This paper investigates the relationship between technological capabilities, import dependency, and environmental policies, focusing on the lithium-ion battery supply chain (LBSC) – a critical sector for the net-zero transition. We contribute to the growing literature on the drivers and barriers to accelerating the transition in the following ways. First, we develop an original analytical framework that integrates two recent streams of literature – one focusing on the acceleration of the green transition and the other on structural dependencies and technological sovereignty – to examine potential trade-offs between these objectives. Second, we develop a strategic intelligence analysis of the LBSC allowing to quantify import dependencies and technological capacity gaps at a highly granular product/technology level. This allows to identify critical products and supply chain stages where policy action is needed to avoid the emergence of bottlenecks to the green transition. Third, we examine how technological capabilities influence import dependency, showing under what conditions technological upgrading strengthens competitive positions and mitigates dependency. Finally, we analyse how environmental policy stringency relates to import dependency, assessing whether and in which circumstances environmental goals may conflict with technological sovereignty and strategic autonomy ones. Our findings suggest that technological upgrading can reduce dependencies without compromising environmental goals so that the presumed trade-off between the net-zero transition and structural dependencies does not necessarily hold. In contrast, a welldesigned policy mix, aligning environmental objectives with targeted innovation and industrial policies, can enhance both resilience and the acceleration towards the net-zero transition.