Three Strategic Bets on AI's Future

Every major LLM launch we tracked coincided with total market growth and showed little evidence of cannibalization between models. When OpenAI releases a new model, Claude's user base grows. When Anthropic releases a new model, ChatGPT's user base grows. The "AI war" zero-sum framing appears to be incorrect. Three radically different monetization strategies are succeeding at once. ChatGPT pursues scale: around 79% market share with moderate revenue per user. Google Gemini pursues ecosystem: 12% share but almost no direct revenue, effectively subsidizing AI through its other businesses. Claude pursues premium: under 1% share but 40x higher revenue per user than Gemini. Each strategy faces different risks, but all three seem viable, at least for now. As market growth slows or capital markets become less forgiving, these strategies face different vulnerabilities. Scale leaders must convert free users. Ecosystem players must justify subsidies. Premium players must stay differentiated. Executives building, buying, or investing in AI should resist single-outcome bets and instead match strategy to structural advantage.