Can Taxing Firearm Sales Reduce Gun Violence? Preliminary Evidence from Two Natural Experiments

This study investigates the extent to which recently enacted excise taxes on the sale of firearms in California and Colorado influence the levels of gun violence in those states. We obtain and analyze empirical data from the Gun Violence Archive on all incidents of gun violence, including homicides and nonfatal shootings, in California, Colorado, and the surrounding states from January of 2022 through December of 2025. Using a difference-indifferences framework, we find that by discouraging firearm purchases, the excise tax in California accounts for 17.2 percent fewer incidents of gun violence, 12.9 percent fewer victim deaths (excluding suicides), and 26.6 percent fewer nonfatal injuries. These results imply that approximately 167 lives are saved and about 663 injuries are prevented annually in the state as a result of the tax. The excise tax in Colorado also reduces gun violence significantly, inducing 26.3 percent fewer incidents and 30.1 percent fewer injuries. The results have relevance for other states that are considering the enactment of excise taxes on firearms.