Regional Electrification Strategies, Grid Expansion and Energy Access in Ghana: An Optimisation Modelling Approach

Ghana’s electricity sector faces persistent challenges of transmission losses, regional inequities, and limited renewable integration despite achieving a high national electricity access rate of 89%. While national-level energy models have provided valuable insights for Ghana, spatial bottlenecks and urban-rural disparities remain insufficiently examined. This study develops a multi-regional optimisation energy system model that segments Ghana into four clusters (Coastal, Central, Northern, and Northern Remote) based on access rates, grid infrastructure, and existing and potential power generation.The model incorporates inter-regional transmission and distribution losses, government renewable targets, and urban-rural demand differences to simulate four scenarios from 2015 to 2070: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Transmission and Distribution Loss Target (TDL), Government Target (GT), and a combined pathway (GT+T). Results show that long-term power system planning dominated by conventional generation leads to high total system costs (USD 95 billion by 2070), largely driven by fossil fuel operating expenditures. In contrast, the combined implementation of grid efficiency improvements and renewable integration could reduce total system costs by up to 39%.Under this integrated pathway, installed capacity transitions from a fossil-dominated system to a diversified mix led by solar deployment in rural areas. Transmission system analysis shows that pathways without efficiency interventions place significant stress on central transmission corridors, whereas efficiency-focused strategies promote decentralised transmission flows. Increased renewable deployment diversifies supply sources, reduces reliance on long-distance transmission, and improves spatial equity in electricity access.This study shows that integrating grid efficiency with renewable deployment provides the least-cost and most resilient pathway for Ghana’s long-term power system development.