Securing the Supply of Graphite for Batteries

Battery-grade graphite is the highest-volume active material in lithium-ion cells, yet over 92% of global anode-grade production is concentrated in a single country (China), creating a structural vulnerability for energy storage supply chains worldwide. Here we present the first industry-validated, process-based cost models for both natural and synthetic battery-grade graphite. The models are developed through structured input from 120 experts across 70 organizations and we use them to identify the conditions under which supply chain diversification becomes economically viable. We find that production costs in non-Chinese production environments exceed Chinese market prices by 100-200%, with capital costs as the dominant barrier for any new producer entering the market. Our sensitivity analysis identifies financing structures and particle shaping yields as the highest-leverage near-term interventions, together reducing costs by 25–30%, with further process optimizations reaching 35–40%. Critically, even maximizing all conventional improvements leaves costs above current Chinese market prices, underscoring the need for disruptive innovation. We derive explicit cost targets that emerging technologies such as methane pyrolysis, catalytic graphitization, and end-of-life battery recycling must achieve to become viable, providing a quantitative roadmap for R&D investment and supply chain scale-up globally.