GIS as an Effective Tool for Modeling and Spatial Analysis in Political Geography

The Middle East is going through many complex political changes, including the security and political vacuum that some countries in the region have been exposed to, as a result of the changes brought about by the Arab Spring and other revolutions. The study identifies a vital area that achieves early warning for countries, through which they can predict the sources of the threat, and take an appropriate political and military strategy. Analytical models have been built by analyzing Spatial Relationships of the sources of current and potential security threats through the elements of the geographical location of the countries and the nature of the Earth’s surface, using the index It is quantitative, the Global Peace Index (GPI), and spatial analysis methods were used in the Arc GIS 10.8 Spatial program. The center of the danger and the possibility of its transmission to countries were determined according to the base of geographical connection. The study showed several elements, including the direction of threats, the geographical center of threats, and the spatial distribution pattern. For the dangers and threats in the study area, it was relied on Spatial Statistics Tools using ArcGIS 10.8.1 and Its concern is Measure Geographical Distribution, and in addition to spatial analysis, the methodology relied on the principle of causality in interpreting the results of spatial statistical analysis, as the description of models and distribution patterns are directly subject to the influence of natural and human geographical factors, which greatly affect the determinants of the peace index for countries. To a number of results, including that, the higher the values, especially in areas where the distances between countries converge and in small areas, the greater the density of threat sources in specific areas and the possibility of their transmission to neighboring regions or countries easily, it is expected that the movement of events and influences will tend from the higher areas dangerous to less dangerous areas.