The impact of anthropogenic climate change and political stability on cereal productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT This study explores how human-driven climate change and political–economic conditions influence cereal agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Drawing on data from 26 countries between 1990 and 2024 and using fixed effects panel models, we examine the key factors shaping agricultural output across the region. Our findings show that expanding land for cereal farming, sufficient rainfall, and fertilizer use all significantly boost productivity, reflecting SSA's continued reliance on natural resources and farming inputs. Conversely, rising CO2 emissions and greater trade openness are linked to lower yields, highlighting the vulnerability of domestic food systems to climate pressures and external market dynamics. While domestic credit alone has a limited effect, it becomes an important tool when combined with climate stress, suggesting that access to finance can help farmers invest in adaptive strategies that sustain production. Regional patterns reveal notable differences: East and Southern Africa face the steepest climate-related losses, while Central and West Africa are relatively resilient due to favorable rainfall and land conditions. The results emphasize the need for policies that integrate climate-smart technologies, financial support, and carbon reduction to strengthen food security and promote sustainable agricultural growth in SSA.