The impact of Köppen–Geiger climate transitions and land cover changes on natural hazards in Taiwan

ABSTRACT Human-driven changes in land use and global climate are profoundly reshaping our planet; combined regional effect on hazards remains poorly understood. This study examines the connection between changes in land cover, shifts in Koppen-Geiger (KG) climate zones, and disaster occurrences in Taiwan from 2001 to 2020. We combined satellite data of land cover, surface temperature, and precipitation with verified disaster records. KG climate zones were mapped each year by applying standard classifications to temperature and precipitation data at 1 km spatial resolution. We tracked changes over time and analyzed where they overlapped with disaster events. Our results show an increase in woody savannas and a decline in wetlands, which coincided with a marked expansion of tropical climates and a contraction of temperate climates. Notably, areas where the climate zones shifted-covering 15% of the land- experienced 2.8 times more disasters. localized warming of over 1 °C was strongly linked to forest loss, while extreme rainfall events were correlated with expansion of farmland. These findings reveal a dynamic feedback loop between land, climate, and hazards, providing critical evidence for targeted land-use zoning, the preservation of natural buffers in climate transition zones, and the integration of climate shift maps into early-warning systems for disaster-prone regions.